Yuting Yuan

I am a Ph.D. candidate in Operations Management at Simon Business School, University of Rochester, under the supervision of Professor Yaron Shaposhnik.

My research is focused on service operation and interpretable decision making in innovative business models. I am primarily interested in utilizing data science to derive decision support tools for complex service systems. My current work study congestion and waiting time prediction problems, and data-driven process improvement.

I am on the academic job market 2021-2022.

Curriculum Vitae

Email: yuting.yuan@simon.rochester.edu

Research

Queueing | Machine learning | Interpretability | ICU

Simple Rules for Predicting Congestion Risk in Queueing Systems: Applications to ICUs

  • with Fernanda Bravo, Cynthia Rudin and Yaron Shaposhnik (R&R, Management Science; latest draft)

We study the problem of predicting congestion risk in service systems, a factor associated with poor service experience, higher costs, and even medical risk (e.g., in ICUs). We define "high-risk states" in queuing models as system states that are likely to lead to a congested state in the near future, and strive to formulate simple, interpretable, rules for determining whether a given system state is high-risk. We employ methods from queueing theory, simulation, and machine learning (ML) to devise simple prediction rules, and demonstrate their effectiveness through extensive computational study, which includes a large scale ICU model validated using data. Our study suggests combining custom model-based interpretable features with linear models can accurately predict congestion in ICUs.

Queueing | Game theory

Information Visibility in Omnichannel Queues

  • with Ricky Roet-Green (draft available at SSRN)

Omnichannel system is a common operation strategy which provides multiple ways for customers to experience the business. One feature of such system is the information heterogeneity across channels. For example, to customers, the queue length in the physical store is visible, while the queue length in the online ordering channel is invisible. We study customers’ decision making in an omnichannel system with partially observable queue (FCFS discipline or visible-class priority). We find that when market sizes under fully and partially observable systems are comparable, partially observable system generates higher throughput if customers are not scared away by invisibility. Surprisingly, even with less information, partially observable system can have higher social welfare when the invisible arrival rate is high. In that case, the customers are scared away and the system becomes less congested.

Queueing | Machine learning

Waiting-Time Prediction with Invisible Customers

  • with Yoav Kerner, Ricky Roet-Green, Arik Senderovich and Yaron Shaposhnik (available upon request)

We study the problem of predicting in real-time customers' waiting time in partially visible queueing systems by a predictor who does not observe some of the customers that interact with the system. The problem arises due to technological limitations that prevent monitoring all customers.

We derive closed-form expressions for the prediction problem in a partially visible M/M/1 queue, and propose effective data-driven approaches to solve the prediction problem for more general queues. The effectiveness of our approach is evaluated using both simulated data and real data from a large outpatient hospital.

Operational models | Data-driven | Markov Decision Process

Interpretable Control with Synthetic Models

  • Finished data collection and preliminary analysis (work in progress)

In operational planning problems, the advancement in technology has enabled organizations to collect real time data, learn the system mechanism, and take prompt actions accordingly. I identify three potential problems of this procedure: (1) the noise presented in data may cause biased predictions and hence suboptimal decisions; (2) it's nontrivial to predict system evolution under an action that never occurs in history (in other words, difficulty in counter-factual analysis); (3) in some context, practitioners are not likely to implement the recommended actions without understanding the reasons. I propose a new framework for sequential decision making that tackles these issues. The idea is to leverage the conceptual validity of operational models in data-driven learning and planning. My approach prescribes a data-driven policy that is regularized by a synthetic model, which is an optimal combination of several operational models. I am currently experimenting on synthetic data and real hospital data.

Teaching

Lab Instructor

  • Operations Management, MBA (Rating: 4.5/5)

Teaching Assistant

  • Advanced Business Modeling, MBA/MS

  • Programming for Analytics, MS

  • Social Media Analytics, MS

  • Information System for Management, MBA

  • Introduction to Business Analytics, MBA/MS


Research Presentations

  • INFORMS Healthcare Conference, Virtual, 2021

  • CORS Annual Conference, Virtual, 2021

  • POMS 31th Annual Conference, Virtual, 2021

  • INFORMS Annual Meeting, Virtual, 2020

  • INFORMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, 2019

  • INFORMS Workshop on Data Science, Seattle, WA, 2019

  • INFORMS Healthcare Conference, Cambridge, MA, 2019

  • POMS 30th Annual Conference, Washington D.C., 2019